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1. Will There Be A Second Poker Boom Boom
2. Will There Be Another Poker Boom
3. Will There Be A Second Poker Boom Game

[toc]After years of wandering in the desert it appears poker has found its promise land.

It may take a while, and it may not quite be the boom of 2003, but right now online poker conditions are very unfavourable and actually make it difficult for most of the world's population to do something that is simple: Play poker! Oct 19, 2018  The second coming of the poker boom. The Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board has already approved the first online poker license applications in that state. The first legal and regulated Pennsylvania online poker sites will launch by the end of 2018 or early 2019. PA has a population of almost 13 million. Nice doubt, to make you understand everything I have included an article in detail here. Find some time to check it out. The first two parts of this series looked at the role television played in setting the stage for the poker boom in 2003 and th. Dec 30, 2015  Talk of creating another Boom without also talking about radical change is just that, talk. Unless someone has another hole card camera type innovation, or can somehow make poker even more accessible than online poker did in 2003, we can forget a second Poker Boom. This doesn’t mean current innovation is all for naught.

The 2017 World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event injected some real excitement into the poker world. There was a lot of chatter about the John Hesp-led final table, as well as the other “fun” players who made deep runs like Mickey Craft and Jonathan “Superman” Dwek, who livened up the game.

Just got this text from my dad >>> 'We got the final table on espn
I love this guy Hesp' @WSOP@NormanChad@lonmceachern

— David Tuchman (@TuckonSports) July 21, 2017

Easily the most fun poker I’ve watched in years. Well worth being dead tired tomorrow.

— Matt Brown (@MattBrownM2) July 18, 2017

https://twitter.com/Ssull33/status/887090375722237952

There was also the antics of Barstool Sports, which made a lot of headway in recapturing the general public’s fascination with poker.

@BarstoolNate use to play in high school all the time with my buds. We haven't played for 3 years. You've inspired us pic.twitter.com/rsAYHlaXnZ

— seefs (@JustinSef) July 23, 2017

@BarstoolNate let's hope I remember how to do this pic.twitter.com/WXupK5w7rT

— Rob Lev (@Roblev125) July 23, 2017

@BarstoolNate@SmittyBarstool Thanks for reminding me how much I love poker! pic.twitter.com/rwffyOSNu2

— Joshua Blier (@Blier2488) July 22, 2017

The Tweets above are a clear indication that there was a different vibe to the 2017 WSOP. Now one has to wonder if it will spark a mini-poker boom, and help poker continue to grow in the coming years.

Repackaging poker as a fun game

For new players, the 2017 WSOP coverage made poker look fun.

Instead of selling it as the ultimate test of wits against top practitioners, and a way to make a living, playing poker simply looked like a good time.

But more than appealing to new players, the 2017 WSOP reconnected with lapsed poker players, the people who fell by the wayside during the boom years. For these players, the 2017 WSOP, Barstool Sports, and people like Craft and Hesp provided a come-to-Jesus moment.

That epiphany is: I don’t have to be a professional poker player to enjoy playing poker.

[show-table name=cta-wsop]

Reactivating the boom players

During the poker boom, young dreamers flocked to online poker sites and brick and mortar card rooms. They came with the goal of making some easy money, and perhaps becoming a pro.

Most of them grew disillusioned with the game for a variety of reasons. As a result, they moved on to other things. There are hundreds of thousands of these people, and importantly, they’re no longer bright-eyed 21-year-olds with unattainable dreams and limited bankrolls.

Ten-plus years later, most of them are grounded 30-somethings. Many have families, jobs, and bills to pay. Attempting to become a professional poker player is in the rearview mirror. It probably seems like something they did a lifetime ago.

Their previously held belief that poker was a ticket to fame and fortune probably elicits a chuckle. They look back now and realize how naive they were in thinking poker was an easy path to riches. Beating the game is hard.

However, as the above Tweets demonstrate, following Barstool and watching the jovial Hesp probably brought back the good poker memories. They likely thought back to playing poker with friends, the excitement that surrounded their first trips to a card room, or their first big win.

Will fond memories lead to renewed poker interest?

It’s not out of the question that the recent, positive exposure will rekindle their interest in poker, just in a different way, and with different motives for playing.

In a strange way, the next “poker boom” won’t be about attracting new, young players, or as Norman Chad would call them, a kid with a dream. Instead it will be about reengaging with the players of a previous era. However it will be selling them a different, more realistic vision of what poker has to offer: competition, socializing, and entertainment.

Frankly, these are the players the game wants and needs.

Well, at $20 per round-trip trade ($10 each when they buy and sell) and approximately 250 trading days per year, this adds up to a staggering $150,000 in commissions over the course of a year. Short-Term Capital Gains Tax Rate (Income Tax Bracket)Long-Term Capital Gains Tax Rate10%0%15%0%25%15%28%15%33%15%35%15%39.6%20%Even worse than taxes for day traders are commissions, which can be a sneaky cost of trading. After all, if you're trading tens of thousands of dollars' worth of stock at a time, a $10 trading commission may not seem like much.To illustrate this, consider an example of a trader who enters and exits 30 trades in the average day. Day trading is not gambling.

Poker doesn’t need teenagers and early 20-somethings who want to make a living playing poker. After all, those people will find the game no matter what.

It needs people with disposable income who will play just to play and have fun, and will do so within their means.

People like Hesp, want to have a good time and spend time with their friends and meet new, like-minded people. Whether they win or lose, or make the “correct” play isn’t the point. Like all forms of gambling, in poker there is a chance you’re on the right side of variance and walk away a winner. Just ask Hesp.

Not surprisingly, it was Hesp who summed up this mentality best:

“I play poker recreationally, and I will continue to play poker recreationally… Before I came here, I wasn’t a multi-millionaire in any way shape or form, but you don’t have to have lots of money to be rich in life. I was rich in life before I came here, and I’m even richer now without the money.”

The recipe for a poker boom

There’s a lot of mitigating factors that go into creating a poker boom, so it’s hard to single specific things out as key contributors.

In 2003 we had the hole-card camera, the growth of online poker, Rounders, Positively Fifth Street, the dissemination of information on the Internet, and more. Remove any one of those things and who knows what happens?

2017 isn’t the perfect storm 2003 was, but there is already a solid base of players, and plenty of lapsed players.

Because of this, I see several reasons to be somewhat optimistic that some poker sparks might be lit. The WSOP Main Event attendance could continue its upward trajectory.

• Online poker legislation is making progress in several states.
• Scott Blumstein seems like a great ambassador for poker.
• PokerGO’scoverage of the Main Event and its ongoing content plans.
• Places like Barstool Sports that have an audience that fits into the “poker is fun” narrative.
• The Qui Nguyen effect.
• The potential for a John Hesp effect.
• The increasing popularity ofbar poker leagues.
• New, casual-player-friendly poker tours and programming, such as Poker Night in America’s made-for-TV events, and the recently launched PIFT Poker, which stands for “Poker Is Fun Tour.”
• The World Poker Tour is making player-friendly changes.

Gauging the individual impact of each of these things is difficult. But, like the first poker boom, they could all be contributing factors.

“Will there be a second poker boom?”

Anyone who was playing poker during the first boom — let’s call it 2003 through about 2008 — knows what a great time it was to play poker. Zillions of new players were depositing and trying out all forms of poker — limit and no-limit, cash game and tournament, sit-and-go and multi-table. Almost anyone who was serious about trying to stay ahead of the curve even a little was making money playing. Some were making a lot. And really what could be better than making good money playing a game you love?

Poker in 2018 is much harder. Booms don’t last forever, and while today poker is clearly on healthy footing, no one would mistake it for booming. So naturally people start asking about a new boom. Is it coming? When? How big will it be? What should I do to prepare for it?

I don’t have a crystal ball, but I have a few thoughts. First, there ain’t gonna be another boom like the first one. That was a one-time affair that coincided with a huge boom in the role that the internet played in people’s daily lives.

But I do think it’s possible, even likely, that a small surge let’s call it, may be coming for poker. That surge, if it comes, will be driven by the legalization of online sports betting, casino gaming, and poker from state to state to state.

In April, the Supreme Court overturned the Federal law prohibiting states from legalizing and regulating sports betting within their borders. Within weeks, companies were legally taking sports bets in New Jersey. By the end of 2018, legal sports bets may have been placed in up to 10 US states.

By all reasonable assessments, a majority of states will likely jump in on sports betting in some capacity within the next few years.

Poker will probably come along in many of these states as a tag-along. I would be very surprised if I’m writing at the end of 2020 and we’re still stuck with the handful of legal online poker states that we have today.

Online sports betting is Coming with a capital C. Online casino gaming and online poker are probably also coming with slightly less emphasis.

It’s All About The Marketing Budget

Why was poker so good during the boom? Fairly obviously, it was all the new players with fresh deposits getting in the game.

What caused these new players to deposit and play?

Marketing. If you look behind the curtain of any major gambling opportunity, you will almost always find a healthy marketing budget driving the action. How did marketing budgets create last decade’s boom?

• Direct advertising. Shows like the World Poker Tour became popular, and online poker sites advertised on them relentlessly. This sort of spend trickles down to established players by attracting new blood.
• Deposit bonuses. During that period, operators were offering huge deposit bonuses to get people playing. These are real marketing dollars put directly in players’ pockets.
• Affiliate fees. Online gambling tends to make great use of affiliate marketing, where third parties do the marketing work for the operators and then take a cut of signups, deposits, losses, rake, etc. In poker, many of these affiliate fees made their way back to players via rakeback arrangements with affiliates.

Here’s basically how it worked. There was an initial surge of interest in poker generated by societal adoption of the internet and the World Poker Tour television program (and other early poker broadcasts).

This initial surge brought excitement and investment into the space, and new operators launched. These new operators used their capital investments in substantial amount on marketing to acquire customers.

The marketing dollars artificially buoyed the budding poker economies, and some players started making real money at the game. This encouraged people (like me) to launch businesses to teach aspiring players to win.

This teaching worked—you could read a book, watch a video, study and win money playing a game. This was naturally extremely seductive to many people, and yet more new players were attracted to the game. New players meant more TV programs, more investment, more new operators, more marketing dollars, increased competition over existing players, and so on.

The key point here is that marketing dollars are always at the base of it. They drive the economy during the boom phase.

So will we see another poker boom? If we do, here’s what it will look like.

A number of states legalize online poker in a relatively short period of time on the coattails of sports betting. These states join existing compacts to pool players between states.

All of a sudden, online poker in the US now has the player pool and liquidity to sustain itself after years of atrophy in the wake of Black Friday. This change attracts new players and rekindles the interest of millions of lapsed players. Numbers—active players, handle, rake, etc.—all start looking better to those who would invest in the space.

Some operator decides to try to gobble market share and blitzes the country (at least the part of it with legal online poker) with a marketing campaign. Ads, deposit bonuses, and affiliate dollars flow once again. Not like they did fifteen years ago, but much more than they do today.

Boom.

Well, mini-boom. Once you see the marketing, you will know that it’s on.

Will There Be A Second Poker Boom Boom

Unfortunately (for poker players), things will be complicated this time around because poker will play second fiddle to sports betting and online casino. Every operator that delves into poker will also likely be involved in those two, frankly, bigger gaming brothers. They will secretly believe that every regular poker player is really a sports bettor or casino customer waiting to be converted.

This is obviously largely wishful thinking on the part of the operators—many poker players play poker and only poker and will at most just dabble in other forms of against-the-house gaming.

But a sports betting or casino customer is more profitable than a poker player, so operators will never stop trying to convert poker players into sports or casino customers. (These attempts will involve marketing dollars, so if you are savvy about it, you should be able to profit from sports and casino during this period as well.)
Final Thoughts

Or, none of this could happen. Maybe poker will be overlooked rather than ride sports betting’s coattails. The reason I think it likely will happen at least to some extent is because poker is a great game, it achieved mainstream saturation in the last decade, many of the young, broke players from the last decade are now successful professionals with disposable income, and there’s a bit of forbidden fruit syndrome.

Will There Be Another Poker Boom

The actions the Federal government took against online poker from 2006 through 2011 were extremely effective. Americans didn’t stop playing poker because they ran out of money or lost interest in the game. They stopped because the government forced them to. I think once online poker comes back, many of the players will too. At least for a while.

Will There Be A Second Poker Boom Game

Ed’s newest book, The Course: Serious Hold ‘Em Strategy For Smart Players is available now at his website edmillerpoker.com. You can also find original articles and instructional videos by Ed at the training site redchippoker.com.